2005年8月的帖子

低迷

New_orleans_1今天早上的早报不是一张漂亮的照片。

新奥尔良被淹没了。

东南部的大片地带向下和向外。

能源价格飙升。

伊拉克战争没有任何结束的迹象。

利率上升。

房地产繁荣显示出终结的迹象(最终)。

我们有一个联邦预算罢工,每当我想到它时,我都会头痛。

我们的贸易排除没有减弱的迹象。

丑陋,丑陋,丑陋。

然而,过去几年我们为早期业务提供了充足的资金供应,这导致了许多新公司的成立。

如果资金供应紧张怎么办?

如果我们像许多经济学家现在预测的2006年经济衰退怎么办?

如果风险溢价恢复到正常水平怎么办?

这些是我今天早上的问题。

幸运的是,我经历了风险投资业务的几次低迷。

到目前为止最糟糕的是2001 - 2003年的低迷,这是由互联网和电信泡沫破灭引起的,并且在9/11之前变得更加糟糕。

但是,在PC泡沫破灭后的80年代中期,我开始从事这项业务。

And I witnessed the bursting of the biotech bubble of the late 80s/early 90s and saw how hard it was to finance a biotech 亚博体育下载app in the early 90s.

甚至在1996年至2000年的互联网繁荣时期,我们还有一段时间在俄罗斯债务危机之后,资本供应紧张。

我们肯定会在某个时刻再次出现这些时期,并且考虑到我今天早上的报纸,我担心它可能即将到来。

那么该怎么办?

First, remember why you made your investments in the first place.  Go back and read the investment memos.  If your thesis remains sound, don’t panic.  If you had no thesis and were doing momentum investing, you’ll probably have your head handed to you and you deserve it.

其次,与您的公司交谈Make sure they have a plan B for their capital needs. 

Third, talk to your co-investors.  Make sure they still believe in the 亚博体育下载app and are going to be supportive.

If all of these factors are postive, then keep your head down and execute.  Deals will take longer to close.  People will become risk adverse.  Plan accordingly.  If you need to slim down, do that.  If you need to put off that big 10 year lease, do that.  In fact, do that no matter what the situation is!

Downturns can be a period of incredible opportunity. 

我看看Flatiron的投资组合,在2001 - 2003年期间徘徊和建立业务的公司来自于一些惊人的业务经验。

在经济低迷时期,它需要坚韧,技巧,经验和面对艰难决策。

It is probably a good time to take measure of your 亚博体育下载app, your team, and your plans to make sure you are prepared for the downturn.  Because its going to come at some point.

本周的VC陈词滥调

我要利用布拉德费尔德的帖子在世界上本周的陈词滥调。

我不确定这在技术上是陈词滥调,但这是你在风险投资业务中一直听到的一句话。

人们会说,“我们需要一个RSS

或者“VideoSense是我们的视频广告

企业家们会在演讲中脱口而出,“想想我们在wifi和多人游戏的交叉点“。

This terminology is a sympton of a disease that the venture business suffers from.  That is the disease of always needing to be invested in the latest and greatest big thing.

There are some investors who subscribe to the theory that you need exposure to all the big investment themes.  These investors tend to be very transaction oriented and build and manage (I am using that word generously in this case) large portfolios.

我们不赞成Union Square Ventures的理论。

We subscribe to the theory that you need a well thought out and sound investment thesis and you need to find a small set of interesting companies that should benefit if your thesis turns out to be directionally correct.  We believe that small is better and that active management of a small portfolio is the best way to generate exceptional returns.

我们很可能不会有中国尽管中国可能是目前最有趣的投资主题,但在我们的投资组合中。

我们很可能没有精力尽管能源是一个非常可投资的领域,但在我们的portflio中。

坦率地说,我们不想要任何播放在我们的投资组合

We’ll take a few really smart entrepreneurs who we can help build great management teams and great businesses. 

这是我们唯一的玩。

Portastatic

Bright_ideas今年夏天早些时候,Gotham Galread a story 亚博体育app下载苹果版  Mac McCaughan and合并记录in the NY Times.  If I could find the article on the web, I’d link to it, but for some reason I can’t.

她去了Rhapsody并听取了新的Portastatic记录,聪明的想法, and told me it was great.  Portastatic is one of Mac’s bands, the other being Superchunk.

我们没有给予足够的重视,因为我们转向了其他的东西。

然后我们进入了M.沃德,也是合并唱片公司。

拉吉谁正在我的音乐大师名单上迅速加入Chervokas,他的听力清单上也有Portastatic。

所有这一切都需要四个提及我的注意力,因此在过去的几天里我一直在听Bright Ideas。

This is a great record.  It rocks pretty hard, but its the songwriting that makes the records so special.  I honestly don’t think there is a bad song on the entire record.

这是链接好主意在狂想曲上。

或者你可以在亚马逊购买唱片

Mac played a free live acoustic show last night in NYC at Other Music. 

我当然希望我能去那里看看。

积极的第十街

我们新的每周播客播出了

This one got pretty hilarious as the kids are getting bored with summer vacation and let us hear 亚博体育app下载苹果版 it live and in color.

乔安妮和杰西卡也批评了秋季时装。

这是歌曲列表:

Joanne的歌 - 我男朋友的背 - The Raveonette's
Josh的歌曲 - 摇滚乐通宵 - KISS
Emily的歌曲 - Kingdome Come - 酷玩乐队
杰西卡的歌 - 快乐的孩子 - 娜达冲浪
弗雷德的歌 - Hi-Fi - M.病房

听住在这里

要在iTunes或iPod上收听,获取iTunes v 4.9,然后选择高级,订阅播客,然后在框中输入:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/Positively10thStreet

DRM无法扩展

在技​​术,极客和黑客的世界里,说一些不能扩展的东西是你能说的最糟糕的事情之一。

但就DRM而言,这是真的,是时候承认并继续前进了。

在我们的家庭音乐设置中,我们(威尔逊家族)正在迅速转向点对点架构。

亚洲体育app下载苹果版五年前,我决定创建一个全数字系统,在家里播放音乐。

它基于中央服务器架构,我们选择了音乐服务器请求媒体(以前的音频请​​求)。

我们将这些服务器连接到多房间音频系统,我们在整个家庭中使用crestron面板,Java客户端和Web浏览器进行控制。

After having that system for a couple years, we decided we wanted it at our second home at the beach.  So we took one of the servers out to long island and connected it to our house in the city via our cable modem internet connection so it could synch with the main server.  It was simple to do.

我们使用电视机,Java客户端和Web浏览器控制该服务器。

我们一直在购买CD,将它们翻录到我们的服务器上,然后在过去的五年中将CD放到后代,并在两个家庭中都很好用。

But in the past year, the music has been migrating off of the servers onto the growing array of computers we have in our homes.  There are a ton of reasons for it, but I think the main one is the emergence of the iPod as the way everyone wants to listen to music outside of the home.

So each of us, including our kids, have iTunes on our computers, and an iPod that we synch to.  We pull the music off the servers and onto our computers.

And now, at an ever increasing rate, we buy music directly from iTunes onto our computers, bypassing the Request servers completely.  That is a big problem that I have not come up with a good soultion for since Request can’t deal with the DRM that iTunes uses.  We often end up buying music two or three times, a couple times via iTunes (multiple people) and then we buy the CD to get the music onto our servers.

iTunes has a music sharing service built into it so we’ve started connecting to each other’s computers and sharing music with each other, again bypassing the Request servers.  That tends to limit the number of times we buy a song on iTunes, but since there’s no single directory for all of our shared music, it doesn’t solve the issue completely.

And then last spring, I connected a low end Dell PC which runs two applications, iTunes and Rhapsody, to the music systems in both homes.  And using the music sharing services, we can play music anywhere in either home that resides on any computer.

虽然我们仍然使用请求服务器来播放音乐,但我们越来越少地使用它们,我看到时间到了,我们根本就不会使用它们。

那么这与DRM和扩展问题有何关系?

I recently got the Gotham Gal a new Mac mini for her office.  I signed her up for iTunes and configured it to use the same account everyone uses.  She bought some music and when she went to play it, she got the message that the account can only serve 5 users.  So she bought the music, paid for it, and she can’t even play it on her own computer.  That’s the DRM wreaking havoc on our home music system.

In the central server architecture, we bought the music once on a CD, put it on the central server, and then were able to play it in any room in our two homes.  That makes sense.

In the peer to peer world, with DRM working behind the scenes, we end up buying the music several times, and then can’t play it on every computer we own.  That doesn’t make sense.

So maybe they should up the DRM limit to 10 users?  That might work, but we’ve got close to 10 computers in our two homes when you include the two dedicated machines we use to play music, the five computers (one for each person), a kitchen computer, and shared machine in our beach house because not everyone has a laptop to bring with them. 

What if we get a couple more laptops? 

When is enough enough? 

如果我们得到更多专用的音乐电脑怎么样,我们可以在家里的不同房间播放不同的音乐呢?

After thinking 亚博体育app下载苹果版 this problem for the past couple months, I think its pretty clear that DRM doesn’t scale.

我们需要的是音乐拨号音。

Then DRM can scale.  Either you have the dial tone or you don’t.  It will be that simple.

Until then, we are going to be fighting an every increasing battle with complexity that is going to hamper the migration from the analog music business to the digital music business.  And that sucks for everyone who loves music.

本周的MP3

嘴唇过去一周滚石乐队一直在关注。

首先,我上周花了很多时间听60s Stones,结果导致了我的最后50强帖子

石头再次巡回演出,我得到了他们的芬威公园秀一瞥

然后Chervokas,我的主要博客/音乐大师之一,让我了解了这一事实新唱片中的部分音乐可在线获取

I am not sure how Mick feels 亚博体育app下载苹果版 that, but frankly I don’t care 亚博体育app下载苹果版 too much 亚博体育app下载苹果版 it.  I’ve said my piece on the online music thing and here is我的MP3发布政策对于任何想要阅读它的人。

What I do care 亚博体育app下载苹果版 is the setlist for the Giants Stadium show on Sept 15th, when the Gotham Gal and I are going to take the kids to see the greatest rock and roll band of all time.

特别是Mick和Keith,如果你偶然读到这个,请玩雨跌倒了

因为听了所有的音乐后更大的爆炸我可以得到我的手,这首歌我无法阻挡威尔逊房子,汽车和iPod的电视广播,这是一首时髦的常规曲目。

昨晚,当我们以自上而下的方式回家,吹着我们的头发时,我们开始降雨,家里的每个人都在一起唱歌,挖掘整个歌曲中经典的Keith Richards即兴演奏。

因此,这可能是本周迄今为止任何MP3的最大增量,这里是雨跌倒了

我希望你喜欢它,因为我确实这样做。

网络服务的死亡(续)

A couple weeks ago, I blogged 亚博体育app下载苹果版名为Bloglet的Web服务可能会死亡我用来管理我对这个博客的电子邮件订阅。

Bloglet一直在工作,但几乎没有,我找到了一个很好的替代品。

它被称为FeedBlitz它的工作方式几乎与Bloglet相同。

如果仔细查看本博客左上角的“订阅”字段,您会发现它已经发生了一些变化,现在它已由FeedBlitz提供支持。

如果您没有通过电子邮件订阅此博客,那么这是您将看到的唯一变化。

如果您通过电子邮件订阅,那么每天早上您都会收到不同的电子邮件。

它将包括整个博客文章,因此您无需单击直到网上阅读我的帖子。

I have mixed feelings 亚博体育app下载苹果版 that and would encourage you to click thru and read on the web if that’s what you like to do.

但是,如果您更愿意阅读电子邮件,那对我来说也没关系。

FeedBlitz uses any RSS feed I choose and since I chose my Feedburner feed, you’ll now see Google RSS ads in the daily emails.  I wish these ads were more effective but they are not that relevant.

如果有更好的东西,我也很乐意改变它。

FeedBlitz有一个很棒的Bloglet导入功能,所以如果您通过Bloglet通过电子邮件发送给我的博客,您现在将自动从FeedBlitz获取它。

对于通过电子邮件获取博客的读者,我有两个请求

1 – if you don’t get it starting tomorrow from FeedBlitz, please let me know.  You can comment to this post or send me an email.

2 – If there is anything you don’t like 亚博体育app下载苹果版 the new emails, let me know我可以很容易地改变它们,如果我得到任何一致的反馈,鼓励我这样做。

That’s it.  I hope you like the new service.  And I hope this one doesn’t die on me.

这个人是一个典当

Crawford_1On Friday, the food and drug commissioner, Lester M克劳福德
宣布他将无限期推迟对此作出裁决B计划
巴尔实验室制造的早晨避孕药。

该法律规定,食品和药物管理局必须在八个月前(即去年一月)就B计划作出决定。

但相反,我们没有因延误而得到任何结果。

以下是来自纽约时报今天。

博士克劳福德星期五说,F.D.A会征求公众意见
在接下来的60天里,它是否有权批准Barr's
申请以及是否可以执行任何可能会停止的规定
17岁以下的女孩自由购买避孕药。

这是我的公众评论莱斯特:

This pill, which does not abort a pregnancy, but simply stops one from happening, like the birth control pill does, should be available over the counter.  In fact, it should have been last January.

更新:Jason Chervokas在对这篇文章的精彩评论中写道:

究竟是什么令人信服的国家有兴趣确保
16岁女孩受精卵植入子宫壁?

没有性别
没有怀孕,似乎是目标。

当然是杰森。

中号病房

Transistor_radio我刚加了MWard’s Transistor Radio to my Heavy Rotation list becaue I can’t stop listening to this amazing record.

Raj Bala让我接受了它他的前十名几天前。

从那时起,我必须听过三到四次。

I really don’t know how to describe this record.  It’s a bit like Tom Waits I guess.  And a bit like The Eels如果你喜欢他们中的任何一个,得到这个记录

如果你有Rhapsody,那么这里是链接晶体管收音机

如果您有iTunes并且愿意花三到四块钱,请查看以下歌曲:

我会是你的鸟
再次来到太阳
燃料为火
嗨Fi

或者,如果你愿意花10块钱,那就是下载记录和M一起去groovin'病房。